According to SIPRI, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK, generally called North Korea) may have produced enough plutonium “to build a small number of nuclear warheads, but there is no public information to verify that it has operational nuclear weapons”.   A key question will be whether and how the death of Kim Jong-il and elevation of his son Kim Jong-un will affect North Korean politics.  Under Kim Jong-il, North Korea pursued a nuclear programme that resulted in its announced withdrawal from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) in 2003.  As of 2012, it is estimated to have produced at least 30 kg of plutonium, which could make up to 10 nuclear warheads. It conducted nuclear tests in 2006, 2009 and possibly (unconfirmed) a further very low yield nuclear test in May 2010.  Though North Korea has a well developed missile programme and tests and markets ballistic missile technologies to several states that raise proliferation and security concerns, data from its nuclear explosive tests and failures in its test programme for the Taepo-dong long range ballistic missile have convinced most analysts that North Korea is not yet capable of launching a long range nuclear weapon.  In 2010, North Korea (DPRK) revealed the existence of a uranium enrichment plant, which although it had been long suspected, surprised observers by being more modern and advanced than expected. 

The Acronym Institute has been tracking the talks to rein in North Korea’s nuclear programme since the 1994 Framework Agreement with the US.  Tensions on the Korean Peninsular have been high since the March 2010 sinking by North Korea of a South Korean vessel killing 46 sailors.  Although North Korea (DPRK) has indicated a willingness to restart the Six Party Talks (comprising China, Japan, North Korea (DPRK), South Korea (ROK), Russia and the United States), this has not happened. The US is currently collaborating with the South Korean government to deploy ballistic missile defences in South Korea, which is fuelling tensions with China as well as North Korea.  Attempts to build a new naval base for Aegis Destroyers (designed to carry BMD missile interceptors) on South Korea’s beautiful Jeju Island are being met with determined local and international opposition, concerned with both the environmental harm caused by the base construction at Gangjeong and by the risks that deployment of BMD will further destabilise security in the region.   It now remains to be seen whether Kim Jong-un will resume the Six Party Talks, which at time of writing remain stalled.